Disagreeing (on balance) with Kevin Drum's drift!

FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 28, 2012

GOP polling denial: Since returning from that federal bunker this Tuesday night, we have had our time grabbed away by a bit of a banking calamity.

For that reason, we haven’t been posting at normal volume. And we haven’t followed up on Wednesday’s post about Rachel Maddow and Elizabeth Warren.

See THE DAILY HOWLER, 9/26/12. But first, let’s consider Kevin Drum’s post about GOP polling denial.

As Obama seems to gain in the polls, a conservative blogger named Dean Chambers has started saying the network polls are fixed. Drum says that idea is nuts—and he says a bit more:
DRUM (9/28/12): Chambers doesn't even pretend that his approach has any rigor. He adopted it, he told BuzzFeed, after seeing a poll that "just didn't look right." After a closer look, he decided that none of the others looked right either. And what does he think accounts for this widespread blundering among the nation's pollsters? Not simple incompetence, Chambers says. It's all quite deliberate. "Any poll that says NBC, CBS, or ABC is going to be skewed and invested in trying to get this President re-elected," he explained.

This is, to put it bluntly, nuts. And it suggests a fundamental difference between left and right, one that Chris Mooney wrote about earlier this year in The Republican Brain. Neither side has a monopoly on sloppy number crunching or wishful thinking, but liberals, faced with a reality they didn't like, ended up accepting reality and deciding to learn more about it. That's the Nate Silver approach. Conservatives, faced with a reality they didn't like, invented a conspiracy theory to explain it and then produced an alternate reality more to their liking. It's a crude and transparently glib reality, but that's apparently what the true believers want.
We agree that Silver is a different cat from Chambers. Having said that, we think there’s an air of liberal triumphalism here that ought to be handled with care.

We read Mooney’s book about six months back—and we were surprised by what we found. We were struck by the amount of “motivated reasoning” which seemed to drive his insistence that the other tribe is driven by “motivated reasoning.”

We thought it was a very weak book—a sloppy French kiss to us liberals, to our liberal vanity.

Silver’s a different cat from Chambers. But as the liberal world continues to grow, we liberals have shown a taste for the sorts of blinkered analyses which have been driving the pseudo-right since Rush took over the world.

For our money, Maddow’s reports about Warren this week were striking examples of that unfortunate liberal drift.

The true belief isn’t all “over there.” We still plan to review those reports when we get the time.

89 comments:

  1. more false equivalence from somerby. the radicals have moved so far to the right, theyre practically out of eyeshot. but somerby quibbles about liberals not being perfect either.

    the gop want the elections to seem closer than they really are so that they can steal them with less repercussions afterward from the public and the media.

    but first they have to break into the bank building (i.e. appear to narrow the leads in the public mind) before they can get close enough to blow the safe (i.e. alter the results of the electronic voting machines).

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. He didn't say the left is just as bad as the right. He did suggest the left can become as bad as the right, is heading in that direction.

      Delete
  2. "And we haven't followed up on Wednesday's post about Rachel Maddow ...."

    Bob, you forgot "our own Rhodes scholar."

    ReplyDelete
  3. "But as the liberal world continues to grow, we liberals have shown a taste for the sorts of blinkered analyses which have been driving the pseudo-right since Rush took over the world."

    Well, no. Drum's point seems to be the opposite -- that "liberals" haven't been doing the "sorts of blinkered analyses which have been driving the pseudo-right."

    He seems to say that liberals learned a lesson in 2004, when they tried to convince themselves that the October polls weren't really saying what they were saying, and that John Kerry was going to pull it out, and were coming up with all sorts of ways to dismiss what "the topline numbers were suggesting."

    Enter Nate Silver, who first made his name analyzing baseball numbers, with the notion that the more data you have and the more you analyze the data against what happened in the past, the better conclusions you can draw. That is hardly "liberal" or "conservative" regardless of what Silver's political inclinations are.

    Now we got Chambers, who begins with the assumption that the polls have to be wrong because they aren't producing the results he likes. So what does he do? He starts by assuming that the actual electorate will be different than polling samples and that Romney supporters are grossly under-represented. So he merely re-weights his samples, giving Romney supporters more weight than the rest, and voila! Romney suddenly comes out ahead.

    "Silver's a different cat from Chambers." Uh, yeah, Bob. That's an understatement.


    ReplyDelete
  4. Liberals are so brilliant, clear-eyed, and tough-minded.

    ReplyDelete
  5. alert warning..storm coming..watchin PBS news hour with the Brooks and Shields section and it was mentioned that Al Gore lost election due to sighing loudly and invading Bush's space during the Bush Gore debates..no offense Bob but we know what is coming and you will be correct. Repetitive but correct...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. cant lump shields and brooks together, if thats what you were doing. brooks is a right wing sophist, albeit a talented one. shields is by comparison a very straight shooter, very smart and a liberal fighter.

      Delete
  6. Jkw responds perfectly to this, but you may not get it: Mr. Somerby casts a jaundiced eye on liberals who adopt the same tactics of their (hugely successful) conservative counterparts – those who, loosely speaking, appeal to the viewers limbic system rather than trying to honestly and rationally discuss important issues.

    I think he believes that those liberals who ape the conservative model do a disservice to our cause, and that we would be better served if we didn’t.

    Bob’s analyses of politically based media dysfunction (and it’s amazing success in misinforming and manipulating its consumers) are cogent and and nearly unarguable, from my view.

    The problem is, as he makes clear, the nationsl media itself, and I imagine he despairs when “his side” can’t be all they should be in that context.

    He gives kudos when it is due.

    So your comment doesn’t really address what this site is all about. It’s about exposure of media malfeasance (and it’s subsequent political repercussions), it’s about real liberals in the media (the ranks of which Mark Shields is considered to inhabit) being true to themselves. It’s not a lost cause, which might explain his vigilance. But I fear that corporate domination of the media will overwhelm the real truth.

    For now, this eyeblink in time.

    Repetative – hell yes! Necessary? Now more than ever. I hope he can keep it up. I’ve been following since 1991. Thanks, MediaWhoresOnline, for helping me find him!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This was addressed to Dismissive Missive...

      Delete
    2. dismissive missive (but kinda gentle)September 29, 2012 at 12:00 AM

      “Jkw responds perfectly to this, but you may not get it: Mr. Somerby casts a jaundiced eye on liberals who adopt the same tactics of their (hugely successful) conservative counterparts – those who, loosely speaking, appeal to the viewers limbic system rather than trying to honestly and rationally discuss important issues.” - sycophant

      >>> of course he is trying to convince you that we are involved in some kind of academic debate as opposed to an *interests-based* civic election. he wants his side, the american tories, to win. he sees how effective his version of the tories have been by appealing to negative-emotion charged issues, and so he wishes to limit his opposition, the liberals, to a dry bloodless style.

      the election is won and lost within the lower reaches of the brain.


      “I think he believes that those liberals who ape the conservative model do a disservice to our cause, and that we would be better served if we didn’t.” - sycophant

      >>> thats what he says, and while im not a mind reader, i dont think he believes it. if i thought he was being sincere, he wouldnt merit anywhere near the opprobrium i feel he deserves.


      “Bob’s analyses of politically based media dysfunction (and it’s amazing success in misinforming and manipulating its consumers) are cogent and and nearly unarguable, from my view.” - sycophant

      >>> nearly unarguable? how long have you been reading this blog sycophant? hes been destroyed in the comments section countless times by any number of people.


      “The problem is, as he makes clear, the nationsl media itself...” - sycophant

      >>> yes. they are the rights big trick, their pride and joy, their frankensteins monster. the majority of the electorate are convinced they are liberal as opposed to corporatist. they dont wish to be liberal, but even if they were to try, they are neutered by their public perception of having a liberal bias.


      “So your comment doesn’t really address what this site is all about. It’s about exposure of media malfeasance (and it’s subsequent political repercussions), it’s about real liberals in the media (the ranks of which Mark Shields is considered to inhabit) being true to themselves.” - sycophant

      >>> this site is really about bob somerby. he is a very self involved person, whether in demonstrating his knowledge of some arcane subject like the merits and demerits of various educational achievement measures and their use across the country . . . or settling grudges against media company front people for his own satisfaction or those he serves.


      [style points though sycophant for the self deprecatory moniker.]

      Delete
    3. I have to agree about the media's "amazing success in misinforming and manipulating its consumers". The other day I received this rant from a friend who has somewhat different views to mine . . .


      "The idiots in congress and the socialist in the White House are destroying my country and I resent it every day. The news is appalling, the week of the killing of our Ambassador in Libya, that jerk flew to California for a fund raiser and has yet to address the issue to America. All his flunkies say it is due to that "Muslim film". Even I know that is bull...... I don't know why Americans are so stupid, and Romney is right that 47 percent of people here are on the welfare dole, they get free cell phones,food stamps, child assistance, college assistance, and are not held
      accountable for anything. The illegal's [sic]are so rampant here I have a hard time holding my tongue when I here them speaking Spanish to their children. And do they have children, three and four hanging on them."

      Apart from that, everything is just fine I guess.

      Delete
    4. "It’s about exposure of media malfeasance (and it’s subsequent political repercussions), it’s about real liberals in the media (the ranks of which Mark Shields is considered to inhabit) being true to themselves."

      Well, that's what it once was, or if not that entirely, at least the direction he was heading when he started this pioneering political blog lo those several years ago.

      But these days, he doesn't criticize "the media." He spends time completely disproportionate to their actual influence on MSNBC, op-ed columnists for the NYT, the occasional op-eder for the Washington Post, while ignoring the vast array of outlets that truly comprise the American "media."

      On top of that, he sounds like a cranky, old man when one of his targets is younger than he, and most of them are. He never fails to mention it as if youth and thoughtfulness could never go together.

      He also does have some sort of jones about "Irish Catholic," although to what degree it colors his analyses could be arguable. Yet you would never hear him call Rush Limbaugh a "German Protestant" to explain his dysfunction. "Darlings, it just isn't done." But woe to any pundit who is young AND Irish Catholic.

      Bob has also failed to note the technological changes that has fractured the "media" which is undoubtedly the greatest media trend of the last half century, perhaps having its birth waaaay back in the days of Father Coughlin.

      There is no longer a reach for a mass audience. Instead, a few hundred thousand these days makes a nice, little "niche" audience and you will survive.

      For example, had you put Stephen Colbert up against Johnny Carson 40 years ago and Colbert attracted the same sized audience, Colbert would have been cancelled within six months.

      This also extends to the op-ed pages. Where once we had thoughtful analyses between left-of-center and right-of-center columnists, we now have extremists screaming at each other, each with their own niche audience, and we call that "balance."

      Finally, using Squeaky's friend as an example, we have a chicken-and-egg situation. Surely, what he wrote was nonsense, but you got to be disposed to believe that nonsense in order to not only accept it, but use modern methods of communication to spread it around to as broad an audience as possible.

      It would be interesting to explore why so many people (however many, but you hear this crap all the time) would be so personally offended at hearing Spanish spoken and presume the person speaking Spanish was an "illegal."

      But Bob never seems to get around to that in his singular focus to battle media "liberals" (by the way, is there anyone this side of the extreme right wing who considers Maureen Down a "liberal"?) who won't toe his rhetorical line as his disdain for such sinks to even deeper personal levels.




      Delete
  7. I thought this was about Republicans ignoring the polls.
    Thom Hartmann has an interesting theory on this.
    The GOP KNOWS the polls are wrong because they've fixed the election with voter suppression.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Well, they might have tried to "fix" the election with Voter ID laws, but still, the election has got to be close enough to steal. In other words, their candidate has to win by a margin less than the number of votes that they have suppressed.

      It is also my understanding in the case of Voter ID laws in those states that have them that those voters who are on the books, but don't produce a photo ID can have an election judge verify their identity and get a regular ballot, or they will be issued a provisional ballot regardless.

      Then if the election is close enough, we can have a "hanging chad" debate over counting the provisional ballots.

      It will be interesting, for example, if Romney loses Pennsylvania by 50,000 votes and there are 100,000 provisional ballots. Wonder how he'll feel about counting those ballots, and about Voter ID laws in general.

      Delete
  8. Although Chris Mooney writes on science, he has no college or graduate degrees in any field of science.

    If a conservative without a science background propounded a bizarre, novel theory about the structure of the human brain, this conservative would rightfully be labeled a crackpot. IMHO Mooney is equally deserving of this label. I think he's taken seriously only because of motivated reasoning on the part of his fans.

    ReplyDelete
  9. What about the left who calls out the right on outrageous subtexts, what are called dog whistles and code words? That's an actual conspiracy. A huge portion of the left, especially Lakoffians, rarely question if someone comes out and says what they wrongly think is an original opinion, is a good thing. They know it happens and want to participate in it.

    Look at the way Naomi Wolf has been getting trashed. Ralph Nader. It's not any different.

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